USD / CAD – Canadian Dollar rallies


– US PCE data knocks greenback lower.

– BoC Business Outlook survey ahead.

– US dollar opens with losses across the board.

USDCAD: open 1.3527-31, overnight range 1.3515-1.3551, close 1.3539, WTI $83.07, Gold, $2251.81.

The Canadian dollar rallied on Thursday in the wake of better than expected Canadian GDP data. Canada’s economy grew faster than expected in January, rising 0.6% m/m compared to the forecast for a 0.4% increase. Economists were impressed, and many said they would be revising their 2024 growth forecasts. Others looked at the data more cautiously, noting that 2023 started on a firmer than expected footing before growth stalled.

The Canadian dollar gained due to speculation that the data meant that policymakers would not be in any hurry to cut rates and could wait until September.

The Canadian dollar managed to hang on to the gains after the US Personal Consumption Expenditures-Price Index data was lower than expected (actual 0.3% m/m vs. forecast 0.4% m/m). The data fueled broad-based US dollar selling due to speculation the Fed would cut interest rates as soon as June.

However, Fed Chair Powell is not one of those looking for an early rate cut. On Friday afternoon, he said, “The fact that the US economy is growing at such a solid pace, the fact that the labor market is still very, very strong, gives us the chance to just be a little more confident about inflation coming down before we take the important step of cutting rates.”

FX liquidity was poor due to widespread market closures around the globe. Many regions were closed Thursday for the start of the Easter weekend, with all the major G-10 markets closed on Friday. The antipodean, European, and UK markets are closed today as well.

The quarterly Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey is expected to show that inflation expectations have fallen marginally.

EURUSD traded in a 1.0779-1.0799 range. European and UK markets were closed today, and prices are weighed down by dovish ECB policymaker comments.

GBPUSD drifted quietly in a 1.2609-1.2643 range. Housing Price and Manufacturing PMI reports are Tuesday.

USDJPY drifted quietly in a 151.22-151.43 range. Mixed economic results were largely ignored, with traders looking ahead to Friday’s US employment report.

AUDUSD traded in a 0.6514-0.6539 range as domestic markets were closed.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.4 in March (February 47.8)



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