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USD / CAD – Canadian dollar awaiting December GDP


– Canada GDP expected at 0.1% m/m in November.

– Eurozone data shows that the economy continues to struggle.

– US dollar opens on mixed note compared to Monday.

USDCAD: open 1.3401-05, overnight range 1.3399-1.3425, close 1.3415, WTI $76.98, Gold, $2035.60.

The Canadian dollar is trading choppily, albeit with a modestly bullish bias, ahead of the release of November GDP data. The Canadian economy is expected to have grown by a slim 0.1% m/m in November. A few Canadian bank economists are suggesting that the Bank of Canada has an overly pessimistic view of the domestic economy, with one of them saying that the BoC’s view may be a deliberate attempt to make its monetary policies look more efficient.

Regardless, today’s Canadian data will only have a limited impact as traders are focused on US quarterly earnings reports and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Equity traders are hoping that today’s Alphabet and Microsoft earnings data will continue to drive stock markets higher.

The Fed is expected to adopt a dovish monetary policy bias at Wednesday’s meeting and refrain from suggesting that interest rates could still rise. That outlook and the prospect that US rates could fall further and faster than Canadian rates have narrowed Canadian and US 2-year interest rate differentials in Canada’s favor, which is another layer of support for the Canadian dollar.

EURUSD is steady in a 1.0811-1.0843 range after a barrage of Euro area data. Eurozone Q4 GDP was 0%, which allowed the bloc to narrowly avoid a recession, but that was about all the good news. Eurozone Business Climate, Services Sentiment, and Consumer Confidence painted a mixed picture for January. EURUSD technicals are bearish below 1.0890.

GBPUSD is trading negatively in a 1.2671-1.2722 band due to speculation that the Bank of England may shift monetary policy to a dovish bias at Thursday’s BoE meeting. The GBPUSD technicals remain bullish while prices are above 1.2660, the uptrend line from the end of October.

USDJPY extended yesterday’s losses and fell to 147.16 from 147.55 due to the lower US 10-year Treasury yield. Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% from 2.5% in November.

AUDUSD is trading at the bottom of its 0.6596-0.6625 range, with upside momentum hampered by China’s growth issues. Australia’s December Retail Sales fell 2.7% m/m (forecast -0.9%, November 1.6%), but the news was largely expected, and it did not have much impact on the currency.

Today’s US data includes the JOLTS Job Openings report



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