As the Senators take on the Vegas Golden Knights in a rare 6 pm ET weekday tilt, the organization can put themselves in a good position ahead of the dreaded month of November.
November has not been kind to the Senators in recent years. Since the team’s appearance in the Eastern Conference final, the Senators have put up a combined 27-46-3 record during November for a points percentage of .375. This stretch of futility includes a 9-24-2 showing over the past three seasons.
With a win tonight, however, the Senators can ensure they will finish the month with an October record above .500. It would be quite the accomplishment for this group, considering some of the contextual circumstances the team has faced.
Losing their no. 1 goaltender, Linus Ullmark, to an undisclosed muscle strain was unanticipated. Artem Zub suffering a concussion in the third game of the season, thanks to a hit by Tanner Jeannot, represented another substantial blow to the lineup.
Adapting to the new head coach, Travis Green, and creating a smooth transition was paramount. Implementing and executing his systems effectively was always going to take time, but a winning record would create a nice little points cushion and improve their margin for error later.
Much has been made about some of the Senators’ poor five-on-five underlying shot and goal data. NaturalStatTrick ranks in the bottom-third of the league in the percentage of total shots allowed (48.74 CF%, 21st) and goals allowed (36.36 GF%, 28th), but it is worth remembering that this is a small sample size facing some strong quality of competition.
Here is how the Senators’ October opponents have fared regarding the percentage of expected goals:
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Florida: 53.69, 8th
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Montreal: 36.05, 32nd
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Los Angeles: 57.49, 2nd
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New Jersey: 50.03, 15th
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Tampa Bay: 51.42, 11th
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Utah: 50.63, T-14th
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Vegas: 43.20, 30th
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Colorado: 55.36, 7th
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St. Louis: 48.33, 22nd
It is a tough slate of games, but there are some encouraging signs for this team underneath the hood.
For starters, the Senators are doing an excellent job defensively. HockeyViz’s data demonstrates how the Senators have limited the opposition’s shots to the perimeter at five-on-five. Their penalty kill mirrors the even strength defence by limiting the quality chances in the crease and slot.
This is important because it is the defensive side of the puck where the Senators have underperformed in recent seasons. It is their offensive struggles at five-on-five that has caused concern, but there should be enough talent through the lineup to mitigate this problem.
Michael Amadio and David Perron have failed to record points. Of the Senators’ defensive pairings that have logged more than 10 minutes of five-on-five ice time together, only the Thomas Chabot/Nick Jensen pairing has been on the ice for a Senators goal for.
Eventually, the even strength production should pick up. If it does and the Senators continue to play and build on their defensive progress, it should bode well as the schedule continues to unfold.
